Significant Developments

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by +4.0% annual rate through May, down significantly from a +4.9% annual rate through April. Month-over-month CPI less food and energy rose by +0.4%, the same increase as the last two months, and is running at a 12-month rate of +5.3%. Labor/BLS

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Non-farm payroll Employment increased by +339,000 for May, significantly higher than April job growth (+253,000). Job growth continues to be very strong, even in the face of a slowing economy and interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve. The unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from 3.4% last month. DOL/BLS

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q1 of FY 2023 increased by just +1.1% after increasing +2.6% in Q4 of 2022. A significant drop in the pace of growth has increased chances of at least a mild rescession during 2023.  Commerce/BEA

(updated: 6-13-23)

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All Select Indicators:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 

GDP for Q1 of FY 2023 increased by just +1.1% after increasing +2.6% in Q4 of 2022. A significant drop in the pace of growth has increased chances of at least a mild rescession during 2023.  Commerce/BEA

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Retail Sales

Retail sales declined by -1.0 in March, a more significant decline from a -0.2 decline in February.  Commerce/Census

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Durable Goods Orders

New orders for durable goods were down -1.0% for February, less of a decline than the -5.0% reduction in January.  Commerce/Census

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New Homes

New home construction fell by - 0.8% for March, after rising a significant +7.3% for February. New home sales increased by +1.1% in February, after rising by +1.8% in January .  Commerce/Census

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Consumer Price Index (CPI)

The CPI increased by +4.0% annual rate through May, down significantly from a +4.9% annual rate through April. Month-over-month CPI less food and energy rose by +0.4%, the same increase as April. Labor/BLS

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Producer Price Index (PPI)

The PPI rose by a +2.7% rate over the last 12 months ending in 

March 2023, down from an +4.9% rate through February.  Month-over-month PPI less food, energy, and trade services increased just +0.1% in March, down from a +0.2% level in February. Labor/BLS

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International Trade Deficit

The U.S. goods and services trade deficit (i.e., the level of U.S. imports that exceed exports) in January totaled $68.3 billion, up from $67.2 billion in December. Commerce/BEA

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Productivity

Non-farm labor productivity increased by +3.0% during Q4 of FY 2022, but average productivity for 2022 overall decreased by -1.3%, which was the largest annual decline since 1974 when productivity decreased by -1.7%. DOL/BLS

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Employment/Unemployment

Increased by +339,000 for May, significantly higher than April job growth (+253,000). Job growth continues to be very strong, even in the face of a slowing economy and interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve. The unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from 3.4% last month. DOL/BLS

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Personal Income & Spending

Personal income increased +0.4% in March 2023, slightly down from a +0.5% rate in February. Personal consumption expenditures increased by +0.1% in March, down from a +0.3% in February. Commerce/BEA

The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index increased month-over-month by +4.2% in March, down from  up from +5.1% in February. Commerce/BEA

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